As promising as the future might seem today (light at the end of the tunnel?), with some economic indicators beginning to brighten slightly, maybe tomorrow the future might look even a little better. With three-quarters of 2009 behind us now, have we seen the worst of this down cycle or are we in for a tough winter? Let’s take a look.

For the first nine months of 2009, there have been a total of 172 transactions (houses, land, condos, commercial, timeshares, foreclosures, etc), as compared to 214 in the first nine months of 2008 and 339 for the same period in 2007. The total dollar amount of real estate changing hands so far in 2009 is now approximately $238 million, while in the same period of 2008 it was approximately $429 million and approximately $620 million in the first nine months of 2007. Clearly, we have come down well off the most recent market highs. The number of transactions (all sales) through September of 2009 was down about 20% compared to 2008 and the total dollar volume of those transactions for the same period was down about 45% in 2009 versus 2008.

During all of 2008, there were 174 homes sold on Nantucket, which is roughly equivalent to about 15 homes being sold a month (one home sold every two days or so). So far in 2009 (through September), there have been 92 homes sold on Nantucket, or one house sold every three days or so. Foreclosures and foreclosure related transactions are currently making up approximately 9% of the overall market so far in 2009.

As of the end of third quarter in 2009 the average home sale is hovering just above $2.1 million, down about 17% from the approximate $2.561 million average home sale in 2008, while the median home sale so far in 2009 is $1.495 million, down about 16% from the $1.775 million median home sale in 2008. Currently the average and median home sale prices are hovering near 2005 levels.

In 2008, there were a total of 32 vacant lot sales with an average sale price of $1.550 million, there were 46 vacant lot sales in 2007, with an average sale price of just over $2.4 million. There have been 20 vacant lot sales so far in 2009, with an average lot price down about 50% from 2008, which in turn was down about 36% from 2007.

2008, on an annual basis, saw the fewest number of new single-family building permits being issued for any year since building permits were first required in 1972. Annualized predictions for 2009, based on permits issued to date, indicate a total of about half as many new single-family building permits being issued in 2009, as were issued in 2008. September saw 7 new single-family permits being issued.

The first nine months of 2009 indicate the Nantucket real estate market is still showing real indications of continued declines in both overall dollar volume and sales prices. However, September 2009 was actually a bright spot in the sense that it was a stronger September than September 2008 was, and single-family building permits were up, which is a hopeful sign. It is too soon to determine if this indicates a potential market turning point or just the firming of a market bottom. After the last major downturn in Nantucket real estate (early 1990’s), it took several years before any real “upturn” took hold. So, even if we are at the market bottom, I would not expect a rapid recovery. Stay tuned.